NASCAR at Richmond odds, picks 2019: Model says Kyle Larson surprises at Toyota Owners 400

For first time this season, NASCAR will probably be under the lights when the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday at Richmond Raceway. Kyle Busch enters 2019 NASCAR at Richmond as the pioneer in the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup standings with 361 points. He is searching for his fourth win of the year and the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 odds give him a 9-4 opportunity to receive it as he starts in fifth position after qualifying. Kevin Harvick had the quickest speed in qualifying at 124.29 MPH, giving him the pole position. His NASCAR at Richmond chances have moved from 7-1 to 9-2. Martin Truex Jr. (6-1), Joey Logano (8-1) and Brad Keselowski (10-1) are among the other leading contenders in this .75-mile short track. Before locking in any 2019 Toyota Owners 400 picks of your own, first be sure to check out the NASCAR predictions in the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Produced by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors like track record and current results into account.

The version is off to a strong start in NASCAR this season, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin that a top-four competition from the beginning. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers in the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano at its projected top . It also nailed Busch’s huge win at Bristol last week. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, with a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events in iconic places like Richmond Raceway have been in his blood. His model mimicked the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR in Richmond 2019, we can tell you the model is top on Kyle Larson, making a solid run at taking the checkered flag despite heading off at 25-1 NASCAR in Richmond chances.

Larson’s average finish at Richmond is 9.7, which is that the third-best among active drivers. He’s finished seventh or better in four of the last five events in Richmond and won the Richmond autumn race at 2017. He’ll start in 14th place after a slightly slower than expected qualifying time of 123.54 MPH. However he posted the quickest lap (121.70 MPH) in the first practice session on Friday, so he has shown the speed needed to scale the NASCAR at Richmond leaderboard on Saturday evening.

Along with a huge shocker: Truex Jr., one of the top Vegas favorites in 6-1, doesn’t crack the top five. There are far better values in a wealthy 2019 NASCAR at Richmond lineup.

The 39-year-old veteran is sitting at seventh in the standings, but he’s tapered off recently. Truex finished 12th in Texas Motor Speedway and then struggled last week at Bristol, finishing 17th. In his career, Truex hasn’t fared well at Richmond Raceway either. In reality, he has finished in the top five only 3 times in 26 career starts at the monitor.

The version is also targeting two other drivers with 2019 Toyota Owners 400 chances of 20-1 or more time to make a serious run at winning everything. Anybody who backs these long shots could hit it big.

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